John Zogby seems to think Kerry has this election in the bag:

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.

In an enlightented country, Bush's support would already be at 20% (or, perhaps, the idiotic 27% who think the abuse of Iraqis could actually be justified). Yet here we are, neck-and-neck, the public unable to decide between a nuanced, thoughtful candidate who actually did something with his life and a simple man who, in three-and-a-half years, has nothing to show for himself except war and misery. Shame.